ZAR's resilience is likely to be tested in the coming months – TDS

Economists at TD Securities note that the South African Rand will likely face challenges that could negatively impact its current resilience. 

USD/ZAR at 17.85 in Q1 2023 and 17.50 by year-end

“The ZAR's resilience is likely to be tested in the coming months as local macroeconomic variables return to the old normal.”

“South Africa's trade balance is undergoing a quick return to factory settings around flat which implies a negative current account balance. At best, South Africa will end the year with a small surplus, but we expect the C/A to drop to -1.8% of GDP in 2023 and to remain in deficit going forward.” 

“We now expect USD/ZAR at 17.85 in Q1 2023 and 17.50 by year-end.”